The Long View 2008-11-05: The Obamarama Begins
John J. Reilly makes some predictions here that we can assess from the perspective of hindsight.
An Obama Administration, one suspects, could initiate more military interventions than the Clinton and Bush II Administrations combined without losing the support of the MSM.
John saw this clearly.
The Democratic Party today is likely to get most of what it wants regarding the resuscitation of the labor unions. As much as anything, these successes will end the recent rapid demographic transformation of the US (well, that and the general economic downturn, with its consequent fall in labor demand).
This one, not so much.
Neither is it self-evident that moderately higher taxes would have any worse effect than they had during the Clinton Administration. The Republican Party, if it survives, needs another hobbyhorse: a balanced budget, perhaps.
Foreign policy and taxes are things that John did well with, in general.
After this election, it will be very difficult to invoke the presumption, even where it has merit, that undesirable features of the situation of blacks and other racial minorities are do to a collective history that must be remedied collectively. If the president is black, then hasn’t the problem been solved? Laws are on the books based on the pre-Obama presumption, of course, and great armies of lawyers support themselves by litigating with them, but these activities will quickly lose whatever moral preeminence they still retain.
Like the immigration/unions thing, the racial angle on this caught John flatfooted.
The President Elect kept mentioning this proposal throughout his campaign without being called out on it. Also called “pay equity,” comparable worth is the law for civil service jobs in some places. This kind of system does not tolerate sunlight well.
However, come back to fiscal aspects of policy, and John does better.
Finally, regarding Culture War, I note that the defense-of-marriage initiatives did well in the referenda around the country, while abortion-control initiatives did not. This is only to be expected.
This is perhaps the most surprising thing of all in retrospect. In 2008, restricting marriage under the law to a man and a woman repeatedly won referenda, whereas the anti-abortion cause seemed stalled. Now, the legal defense of traditional marriage has been utterly destroyed, while prolife legal victories roll on and on.
The Obamarama Begins
As readers of this space will know, I have been a keen supporter of President Elect Obama for as long as he has been on the national stage. I look forward with unmitigated eagerness to his brilliant Administration. Indeed, in order that there may be no misunderstanding on this score, I celebrated Election Night by shredding any documents in my possession that might in any way be misconstrued to cast doubt on my enthusiasm for the next and best presidency. I plan to implement a similar editorial upgrade to my online material as soon as I figure out how to disable some intrusive Web-based archiving functions. Until then, readers are advised to attribute any confusing statements on this site to subversive hackers. I would, of course, be pleased to reveal to the newly progressive authorities the names, addresses, and personal details of actual malcontents.
In any case, splendid though the Obamarama will be, it will in many ways surprise both its proponents and that minority of persons who still await full conversion. Here are just a few points:
Obama the Bomber
Both Bill Clinton and Bush II came to the White House planning to lower the independent international profile of the United States. Neither had much success in that endeavor. Indeed, as Thomas Madden noted in his comparison of the United States and the Roman Republic, Empires of Trust, domestic politics may not have much effect on statecraft after a certain point in the evolution of an international system. Indeed, one of the still delayed but inevitable events in American post-Cold War politics will be the realization by the Left that not only is the Fatherland of Socialism no more, but transnationalism is not a satisfactory substitute. Most things progressives want to do in the world will have to be done in large part through the US in its capacity as an international utility. The Clinton Administration had an operational understanding of this during its second term, but never contrived to link its global policies with its domestic policies. An Obama Administration, one suspects, could initiate more military interventions than the Clinton and Bush II Administrations combined without losing the support of the MSM.
The Unions Defend the Borders
The short explanation for the US government’s slovenly approach to immigration issues these last three decades is that the Republican leadership wanted a bottomless supply of cheap labor and the Democrats wanted to abolish the existing electorate, at least in certain electorally important districts. The parties were able to pursue these policies because of the eclipse of private-sector labor unions after the 1960s. The percentage of the population that was foreign born in the 1920s and 30s was comparable to what it is today, but the unions, whose members were more likely than the population as a whole to be immigrants, were adamant about keeping the borders closed as much as possible; this for the obvious reason that high immigration depressed wages for low-skill workers. The Democratic Party today is likely to get most of what it wants regarding the resuscitation of the labor unions. As much as anything, these successes will end the recent rapid demographic transformation of the US (well, that and the general economic downturn, with its consequent fall in labor demand).
Taxes: The Price for Civilization
Neither candidate in the recent election was quite as upfront as Democratic Walter Mondale was in 1984 when he said that either he or Ronald Reagan would raise taxes if elected, but that he was at least honest about it. Nonetheless, this time around the electorate had a relatively clear choice between candidates on the federal tax issue. They chose the higher-tax-guy. Indeed, richer voters were the most likely to vote Democratic, knowing that their taxes are certain to rise. The result might have been different if there had been a genuine high-tax-guy, someone who proposed increases to painful levels. No such option was on offer, however. Neither is it self-evident that moderately higher taxes would have any worse effect than they had during the Clinton Administration. The Republican Party, if it survives, needs another hobbyhorse: a balanced budget, perhaps.
The End of the Civil Rights Industry
In a way, it’s unfair to assert that the election of Barack Obama signals the end of race as a divisive issue in American life. The President Elect is not “black,” which in the American sense of the word means a descendent of West African slaves with a long history of post-emancipation discrimination and, often, the experience of internal emigration from South to North. In some ways, as several commentators (all of them Canadian) have pointed out, the most important feature of his parental background is that his father was a subject of the British Empire. No matter. After this election, it will be very difficult to invoke the presumption, even where it has merit, that undesirable features of the situation of blacks and other racial minorities are do to a collective history that must be remedied collectively. If the president is black, then hasn’t the problem been solved? Laws are on the books based on the pre-Obama presumption, of course, and great armies of lawyers support themselves by litigating with them, but these activities will quickly lose whatever moral preeminence they still retain. Remember what happened to the Knights Templar a few years after the fall of Acre. Crusaders have trouble convincing society that they are owed a living after the Crusades end.
Comparable Worth
The President Elect kept mentioning this proposal throughout his campaign without being called out on it. Also called “pay equity,” comparable worth is the law for civil service jobs in some places. This kind of system does not tolerate sunlight well. If the President Elect decides to try to implement it in the private economy, the attempt could prove a gratuitous embarrassment.
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Finally, regarding Culture War, I note that the defense-of-marriage initiatives did well in the referenda around the country, while abortion-control initiatives did not. This is only to be expected. No abortion-control measure will pass that involves criminal penalties; a measure that folded the issue into medical ethics probably would (such a measure would also create a more palatable subject for judicial review). It is not irrelevant that the presidential candidates took care not to contest the campaign on values issues, and the Republicans clearly suffered for their reticence. I think we can say that Heroic Conservatism and similar projects has a future, while Wall Street Journal editorial page economism does not; at any rate, not as a variety of conservatism.
Copyright © 2008 by John J. Reilly
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