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The Long View 2005-04-28: China; Quagmire; My Folly

Contra John Reilly's prediction here: Gordan Chang is still wrong. China; Quagmire; My Folly Anyone in immediate need of a theory of the post-communist world, past and future, should take a look at David Brooks's column in today's New York Times, Mourning Mother Russia:

The Long View 2004-12-13: McCain Ring; Perfect UN; Culture War Overseas; Chinese Bubble

I enjoyed a taste of Hillary Clinton's 2004 efforts to position herself as a future President: On immigration she has begun talking tough on border security, accusing the administration of not spending enough, employing enough people, using the best technology. She recently called herself "adamantly against illegal

The Long View 2003-09-04: Twilight Phenomena

This is your regular reminder that Gordon Chang is still wrong. He may not be wrong forever. Jean Raspail ended up being extremely right 42 years later. Raspail got some of the details wrong, but the big picture is very right. John said a lot of things about Iraq and

The Long View 2003-06-11: Unpalatable Measures

Let's talk about Korea. I don't know the area well enough to vouch for the accuracy of this article by Peter Lee, but one thing that seems clear is that a reunified Korea would be very rich, and very powerful, especially in comparison to Japan. The

The Long View: A New Dynasty

This is a fine essay of alternative history by John Reilly, regarding an early twentieth century China in which someone managed to cobble together enough Confucian orthodoxy to proclaim themselves Emperor, of a sort, sparing China Chairman Mao and the Cultural Revolution. In a fascinating aside, John gets at what

The Long View: Red Capitalism

China is going through one of its periodic financial crises, so this series of book reviews and essays by John Reilly seems appropriate. While I am skeptical about Gordon Chang's predictions of China's collapse [Chang is a Hedgehog in Isaiah Berlin and Philip Tetlock's

The Long View: The Coming Collapse of China

Gordon Chang keeps being wrong about China, he predicted in 2001 there would be a revolution by 2006, but I can see how his story is compelling, attractive even. There are lots of things the Chinese do that it seems like you just cannot keep doing, but they keep on