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The Long View

The Long View 2005-06-21: Goodness & Victory

Maybe John lived in the alternative history of S. M. Stirling's Conquistador, where the US fought in the MIddle East and won a durable victory. Goodness & Victory Even the Spengler at Asia Times reads opinion polls and forms the opinions they are designed to create, or so

The Long View 2005-06-15: Conspiracy, China, and the Defenestration of the Clercs

Lots of fun stuff in this blog post from just over twelve years ago. Gordon Chang is still wrong, of course, but why is really the more interesting question. I don't believe Gordon Chang's predictions of doom for China, but I also don't believe

The Long View: Democracy and Populism

This is the money quote, John Reilly paraphrasing John Lukacs: If you believe the author, the president of the United States is one of the two monarchs remaining in the world; the other is the pope. The presidency differs from the papacy in that its operation is becoming increasingly medieval.

The Long View 2005-06-13: The 34th Annual Conference of the International Society for the Comparative Study of Civilizations (ISCSC)

Peak Oil was an interesting idea. I can see how it seemed compelling: it was based on data and experience, and the model fit the data reasonably well. However, the model and it's assumptions always struck me as wrong-headed. It turns out I was right about that, but

The Long View: The Second Religiousness in the 21st Century

This is a seminal essay that John wrote for a presentation at the annual conference of the International Society for the Comparative Study of Civilizations, at the University of St. Thomas in St. Paul in Minnesota, USA in 2005. He synthesizes many of his ideas into a broader prediction of

The Long View 2005-06-07: The New Jersey Primary, and Worse

This is a great quote: When I was young, I was quite a prig about not using drugs, and I have not mellowed over time. On the other hand, I often shock people who know me with the argument that most drugs should be legalized, even for recreational purposes, simply

The Long View 2005-06-03: Revivals, Counterfactuals, & Subsidies

This is a counterfactual, rather than a prediction, so I can't assess its accuracy as such. However, I find it interesting to ponder: We should also remember that there would have been no conservative revival in the United States if NIxon had remained in office. Nixon brought the