The Long View 2009-02-22
In the modern era, during times of severe stress, society and the state tend to merge, not pull apart. Maybe that is the defining characteristic of modernity, and of every era like modernity.
The answer to these polemical antics is that libertarianism, of which survivalism is the reductio ad absurdum, is froth on a latte'. It is a luxury that can be afforded only when times are flush. In the modern era, during times of severe stress, society and the state tend to merge, not pull apart. Maybe that is the defining characteristic of modernity, and of every era like modernity.
The Political Economy of the Eschaton; A Mystery Explained
For our first reading, let us consider these remarks by everybody's favorite Archon of this present darkness, George Soros:
Soros said the turbulence is actually more severe than during the Great Depression, comparing the current situation to the demise of the Soviet Union.
A considerable literature has appeared in recent weeks to point out that conditions today are by no means as bad as they were at the nadir of the Great Depression. This is certainly the case with regard to unemployment or industrial production. On the other hand, it seems to me that, in the special case of the global financial system, Soros is probably right. After 1929, many banks and investment houses failed; a regrettable but transparent phenomenon. In the last year, however, the financial system has become incoherent. Its assets cannot be valued, and its procedures are of questionable trustworthiness. The latter state is worse than the former. And there is no "outside" this time; the situation is ecumenical.
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Regarding the implications of these events for the position of the United States in the world, that Spengler at Asia Times has taken to arguing that President Obama is about to become a successful economic unilateralist:
The silliest thing that clever people are saying about the world economic crisis is that the United States will lose its position as the dominant world superpower in consequence. On the contrary: the crisis strengthens the relative position of the United States and exposes the far graver weaknesses of all prospective competitors. It makes the debt of the American government the world's most desirable asset. America may deserve to decline, but as Clint Eastwood said in another context, "deserve's got nothing to do with it". President Barack Obama may turn out to be the most egregious unilateralist in American history... Here's a thought-experiment to gauge the merits of different national markets as a safe haven. Close your eyes and try to imagine what Germany, Japan and China will look like 30 years from now... Imagination fails in the case of Europe and Japan. One out of every four Germans today is older than 60, and in 30 years the proportion will rise to two-fifths. Japan is even worse... Imagination also fails in the case of China, not because extrapolation of present trends is so frightening, but rather because economic growth cannot possibly continue at the pace of the past 10 years. China is a different country than it was 30 years ago, and it will be a different country in another 30 years... But America's future is not hard to visualize in 2040. In fact, America in 1979 was not much different from America in 2009. Minor adjustments await Americans over the next generation compared with the great changes affecting its prospective competitors... Nothing can compete with the United States as a safe-haven investment for the long term... Of all the cash flows in the world, nothing is more reliable than the tax revenues of the American state... A radical shift in economic power in favor of the United States makes Obama the moral equivalent of a unilateralist, to a degree that Reagan never could have imagined... Now that American policy has become a millstone around the necks of most of the world's economies, the rest of the world's leaders flatter Obama while he beats them.
These are not views with which I am in a position to quarrel, though I would repeat that the market for American debt really cannot be limitless. A failed Treasury auction would have rapid and most unfortunate consequences. Beyond the size of the market, we must note that the desirability of federal debt has two predicates:
(2) Low political risk in the United States.
Notions like tax holidays tend to undermine the credibility of the first predicate. It is not at all clear that the stimulative effect of the Obama administration's recent decision to lower the payroll tax is worth the further erosion of fiscal credibility. Meanwhile, certain persons seem to be trying to undermine the second predicate. I might mention Glenn Beck of Fox News, a commentator who seems to be Rush Limbaugh without the nuance. His recent special, Think the Unthinkable, was an exercise in putting Mad Max scenarios before the public, scenarios premised on the hypothesis that the malefactions of the federal government could drive the people to revolt or mutinous withdrawal of support. No less a person than Michael Steuer was a guest on the program: an interesting constellation.
The answer to these polemical antics is that libertarianism, of which survivalism is the reductio ad absurdum, is froth on a latte'. It is a luxury that can be afforded only when times are flush. In the modern era, during times of severe stress, society and the state tend to merge, not pull apart. Maybe that is the defining characteristic of modernity, and of every era like modernity.
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Peggy Noonan makes a more interesting mistake:
Just as our political regeneration will happen locally, in counties and states that learn how to control themselves and demonstrate how to govern effectively in a time of limits, so will our economic regeneration. That will begin in someone's garage, somebody's kitchen, as it did in the case of Messrs. Jobs and Wozniak. The comeback will be from the ground up and will start with innovation. No one trusts big anymore. In the future everything will be local. That's where the magic will be. And no amount of pessimism will stop it once it starts.
At the climax of a classic murder mystery, all the suspects are gathered in the manor's library so the the detective can deliver the solution. History works like that, too. Whenever the eschaton arrives (which it does in various places and on different scales) everyone is gathered together for the last act. That has never been more true than now. The local has been abolished. Every shot rings round the world.
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Meanwhile, here is some local Fortean news:
FAA spokeswoman Arlene Salac says investigators examined the metal and determined it is made of cast iron, which is not used in airplanes. She says it's up to local authorities to determine where the object came from.
Owner Al Smith was fork-lifting a sofa onto a wooden storage platform around 10 a.m. [February 18] at his moving company when he heard a sound he thought was a bomb.
I am informed that the metal came from a small factory next to the moving company. There had indeed been a small explosion.
Nothing to see here, folks.
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